Frequently Asked Questions

A belief basket is a set of market positions built around one thesis about the world. Instead of choosing each instrument separately, you can review a basket’s research, positions and weights together. A thesis about energy demand, for example, can connect event outcomes with exposure to asset prices.

Crayz uses AI-generated research to explain why each position belongs, which assumptions matter and what would prove the thesis wrong. Start with the public beliefs and open each one’s research report for its analysis, sources and compilation date; generated research can be incomplete or wrong. A basket can use one venue or combine both. A combo is different: every selected outcome must happen for it to pay out.

Type what you believe will happen on the Create page. CrayZ researches the thesis, writes a report with its assumptions, sources and what would prove it wrong, and compiles a basket of prediction market outcomes and perpetual futures with a weight for each position. Any free allowance and build fee are shown before you submit, and no fee is owed for a build that fails. The finished belief is published with its research, so you and others can read it before trading it.

A basket’s Belief Index starts at 100 when it is compiled and tracks the weighted price changes of its positions. It measures the basket, not your account return. Fees, execution prices, leverage and funding can make your results different. Earlier chart history is a backtest, not a trading record.

Yes. Public beliefs, their research and market positions, and the news feed are open to read without an account. Sign in if you want to create a belief or trade. Trading availability depends on your region and account eligibility.

The research and basket are frozen at creation; they are not automatically rewritten or rebalanced. Read the compilation date, assumptions, sources and what would prove the thesis wrong. AI-generated research can be incomplete or incorrect.

Open a belief, choose Yes or No, enter an amount in USDC and, for perpetual legs, a leverage. CrayZ previews every leg with its estimated price, fees and slippage before you confirm. Once you confirm, each leg is sent to its venue as a separate order. You need a signed-in account with a funded wallet; deposit USDC by card or from another wallet on the Portfolio page.

Open a belief to inspect its positions and research. Before confirming an order, review the preview for each leg, including estimated fees and slippage. Prices and liquidity can change, and legs can fill partly or fail. Selling is subject to venue conditions too.

CrayZ does not run a market of its own. Prediction market legs execute on Polymarket and perpetual futures legs on Hyperliquid, each under that venue’s rules, fees and liquidity. Prediction markets trade shares in event outcomes; perpetual futures provide long or short price exposure.

Polymarket’s market resolution rules explain how winning shares pay $1 and losing shares become worthless at resolution.

Hyperliquid’s funding documentation explains payments between long and short positions. These payments affect trading results and are excluded from Crayz’s Belief Index.

Yes. Trading Yes on a belief takes its basket as compiled; trading No takes the opposite side of every leg, so a long perpetual becomes a short and an outcome share becomes the other outcome. A combo is the exception: it can only be bought as the set of outcomes it names, so it has no No side.

Perpetual futures legs on Hyperliquid can be leveraged. When a basket has one, the order form shows a leverage slider from 1× up to the lowest cap among its perpetual legs, and the preview shows your effective exposure. Prediction market legs are never leveraged. Leverage multiplies both gains and losses, a leveraged position can be liquidated, and funding payments apply while it is open.

Both venues involve risk. Leverage can amplify losses, as the CFTC’s virtual currency trading advisory explains. Read each market’s rules and Crayz’s trading risks and responsibilities before placing an order.

CrayZ earns a builder fee of 0.10% of the executed trade’s notional value on orders it routes to Hyperliquid and on eligible individual-market orders it routes to Polymarket, on both opening and closing trades. For a leveraged trade the notional is the full exposure, not only your margin. Combo orders are quoted with their own fee structure. Creating a belief may carry a build fee, shown with any free allowance before you submit. The venues’ own trading fees, funding payments and network charges are separate, and the estimated fee appears in every order preview.

The full schedule is in the fees section of our trading risks and responsibilities.

Beliefs are built from two kinds of instrument: shares in event outcomes on Polymarket, from politics and geopolitics to AI, macro, energy and sports, and perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, which give long or short exposure to crypto, stock, index and commodity prices. The Markets page lists every active belief, and each one shows the exact markets and assets it holds.

Yes. The News page lists market stories beside the perpetual futures they name, with Buy and Sell on each, and the search bar finds stories and ideas by company, ticker or keyword. You can also paste a headline, or your read of it, into the Create box and CrayZ researches it into a belief you can trade. Prices move quickly around news, so read the preview carefully before confirming.

Both. Buy or Sell on a News story trades that one perpetual future directly. A belief can hold a single position too: create one with a thesis about a single market or asset, and its basket is just that instrument. Baskets exist to express a view that one instrument cannot carry on its own.

Yes. We’re actively working to integrate traditional brokerage firms to significantly expand our market coverage, including global equities, ETFs, commodities, and other financial instruments. Our goal is to let you trade your ideas across as many markets and asset classes as possible, without being limited by the exchanges currently connected to CrayZ.

CrayZ gives you the information to manage your own risk; it does not manage positions for you. Every belief states its assumptions and what would prove it wrong. Every order is previewed leg by leg with its estimated fees and slippage, asks for your explicit consent when a market’s spread is wide, enforces the venues’ minimum sizes, and caps leverage at the lowest limit among a basket’s perpetual legs. Research, baskets and indexes are information, not personalised investment advice.

Prediction markets and perpetual futures involve substantial risk, and you can lose all funds committed to a position. Leverage, liquidation and funding charges can increase losses. A basket’s orders execute separately, so some may fill while others fail or fill only partly, leaving an unbalanced position. Liquidity, venue outages, market rules and settlement decisions can prevent entry, exit or an expected payout, and CrayZ does not control third-party market resolution. Blockchains, wallets and stablecoins can fail or lose value, and a transfer to the wrong address or network may be unrecoverable.

Read each market’s rules and Crayz’s trading risks and responsibilities before placing an order.

You do. Your CrayZ wallet is an embedded wallet provided by Privy, and CrayZ never holds its private key on our servers. Deposits are native USDC on Arbitrum One. When you trade, the funds for a position move to the venue that executes it and are held there under that venue’s terms until you close the position. Wallet, card-funding, bridge and trading services remain subject to their providers’ terms, and a confirmed blockchain transaction generally cannot be reversed.

Choose Get Started and sign in with Google, with a code we email you, or with a password. Google and the emailed code open an account on first use. You must be at least 18, and you accept the current Terms of Service before you continue into the app. Your wallet is created with your account, so there is nothing to install.

Anyone can read the public beliefs and their research. Trading depends on the eligibility and geographic rules of each venue: Polymarket and Hyperliquid each restrict certain regions, including the United States for Polymarket. You must comply with the laws that apply to you, and you may not use a VPN, a false location or another person’s account to bypass a restriction.

Check Polymarket’s geographic restrictions and Hyperliquid’s terms before trading. Access to this website does not establish your eligibility to trade.

Yes. CrayZ is built for the phone first and works in your mobile browser with no download: exploring, creating, depositing and trading all work on a small screen. Add it to your home screen for one-tap access.

Email [email protected]. Write to us promptly if you suspect unauthorised access to your account, and about any duplicate, incorrect or unauthorised charge so we can investigate. Account closure requests go to the same address; arrange access to your wallet and address remaining funds and positions first.

Reach us at [email protected].