Democrats win both chambers in the 2026 midterms

Basket expresses a Democratic 2026 midterm win through direct House and Senate control markets, tilted toward Senate control where upside is less fully priced, plus Ohio and Iowa Senate race satellites for wave convexity. No Hyperliquid leg is used because crypto perps are only loose macro proxies.

The basket

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes on Polymarket · 50% of the basket
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes on Polymarket · 20% of the basket
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes on Polymarket · 15% of the basket
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · Yes on Polymarket · 15% of the basket

What would prove it wrong

Republicans retain control of the House or Senate after the 2026 midterms.
Generic ballot and battleground polling shift materially toward Republicans before Election Day.
Democrats win the House narrowly but fail to convert Senate battlegrounds, undermining the stronger sweep/wave interpretation.