Markets

Bitcoin gains reserve share from gold

The basket is long BTC and short gold on Hyperliquid, plus a direct Polymarket Yes on Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 as a near-term catalyst. It captures the tradeable core of “Bitcoin replaces gold”: a materially rising BTC/gold ratio, while leaving out brokerage-only ETF options and longer-dated reserve-adoption outcomes not listed here.

The basket

• BTC · Long on Hyperliquid · 60% of the basket
• xyz:GOLD · Short on Hyperliquid · 25% of the basket
• Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? · Yes on Polymarket · 15% of the basket

What would prove it wrong

• BTC underperforms gold by 25% or more over a sustained 6-month period.
• Gold rallies on reserve/geopolitical demand while BTC fails to participate.
• Spot BTC ETF flows turn persistently negative or major custody/exchange regulation damages institutional adoption.
• Hyperliquid gold-short funding or liquidity becomes too costly to maintain the relative-value leg.