Markets

AI infrastructure expectations unwind into a tech de-rating

Basket shorts liquid AI hardware, semiconductor, neocloud and AI-crypto beta, plus direct Polymarket catalysts for an AI bubble burst and H100 rental-price collapse. It captures the listed-venue part of the thesis; it cannot replicate long-dated put-spread convexity or VIX exposure unavailable in the search results.

The basket

• xyz:SMH · Short on Hyperliquid · 22% of the basket
• xyz:NVDA · Short on Hyperliquid · 18% of the basket
• xyz:AMD · Short on Hyperliquid · 12% of the basket
• xyz:CRWV · Short on Hyperliquid · 12% of the basket
• AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027? · Yes on Polymarket · 14% of the basket
• Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $1.50 on December 31, 2026? · Yes on Polymarket · 10% of the basket
• TAO · Short on Hyperliquid · 12% of the basket

What would prove it wrong

• NVDA and AMD guidance continues rising while hyperscalers maintain or accelerate AI capex with improving monetization.
• H100 rental prices remain firm or rise into end-2026, showing no compute oversupply.
• Neocloud financing remains easy and utilization stays high.
• Polymarket AI-bubble markets fail to resolve Yes while AI-linked equities keep making higher highs.